Fingerprint compiler and blinded scorer calibration
Which pilot steering coordinates are stable across story states, and can a blinded local model scorer reproduce the human measurements well enough to reduce future review burden?
Labnote 002: Fingerprint compiler and blinded scorer calibration
Question
Which pilot steering coordinates are stable across story states, and can a blinded local model scorer reproduce the human measurements well enough to reduce future review burden?
Method
The compiler treats each story state, rather than each continuation, as the bootstrap unit. For every model and coordinate it records the neutral raw mean, matched-state-relative mean, 95% state-bootstrap interval, per-state direction, leave-one-state-out range, and agency-guard shift. This prevents repeated samples from masquerading as independent narrative contexts.
An independent local deepseek-r1:8b scorer then evaluated the 48-item blinded bundle without model identities or human judgments. Each dimension was calibrated with leave-one-story-state-out bias correction. A dimension was eligible for assisted expansion only when corrected MAE was at most 0.75, at least 80% of predictions were within one scale point, and nonzero sign agreement was at least 70%.
Compiled candidate fingerprint
The strongest state-bootstrap-relative coordinates were:
| Model | Coordinate | Mean | 95% state-bootstrap interval | Same-direction states |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen 3 8B | agency | +0.917 | [+0.500, +1.375] | 4/4 |
| Qwen 3 8B | social | -0.458 | [-0.958, -0.083] | 4/4 |
| Gemma 3 12B | agency | -0.458 | [-0.750, -0.125] | 4/4 |
| Gemma 3 12B | intimacy | -0.250 | [-0.333, -0.167] | 4/4 |
| Llama 3.2 3B | agency | -0.458 | [-0.750, -0.125] | 4/4 |
| Llama 3.2 3B | causal fortune | +0.500 | [+0.167, +0.750] | 3/4 |
| Llama 3.2 3B | closure | -0.292 | [-0.417, -0.167] | 4/4 |
These are model-relative pilot coordinates. Negative relative agency for Gemma and Llama does not independently mean severe agency violation; both had the same neutral raw mean (-0.375) while Qwen's raw mean was +1.000.
Automated scorer calibration
| Coordinate | Corrected MAE | Within one | Sign agreement | Eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| agency | 1.014 | 56.3% | 42.9% | no |
| affect | 0.826 | 66.7% | 58.6% | no |
| social | 0.914 | 62.5% | 58.3% | no |
| causal fortune | 0.872 | 66.7% | 78.9% | no |
| closure | 1.024 | 62.5% | 60.0% | no |
| escalation | 1.186 | 43.8% | 63.2% | no |
| intimacy | 0.571 | 89.6% | 85.0% | yes |
The scorer is authorized only as a candidate intimacy instrument. In particular, it must not score or select agency cases autonomously. This is a useful negative calibration result: naïve automated scoring would have damaged the experiment's strongest human-observed signal.
Decision
Preserve the compiled human fingerprint as version 1. The next replication should target the stable coordinates and obtain a small independent human or agent review sample. Automated scoring may reduce burden for intimacy, but the remaining dimensions require either a better calibrated scorer or deliberately small human adjudication sets. Cone visualization remains out of scope.